The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Aug 11?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 39° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. ERA5 says the day verified at 37° with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 2° hot.

13 days out the models said 39–41; it hit 37. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-27 — 35° — — 41° — — 35–41°
14d · 2026-07-28 33° 39° — — 44° — — 33–44°
13d · 2026-07-29 41° 39° 40° — 41° — — 39–41°
12d · 2026-07-30 33° 35° 40° — 40° — — 33–40°
11d · 2026-07-31 38° 38° 38° — 42° — — 38–42°
10d · 2026-08-01 39° 39° 39° — 42° — — 39–42°
9d · 2026-08-02 36° 39° 39° — 38° — — 36–39°
8d · 2026-08-03 39° 38° 38° 37° 41° — — 37–41°
7d · 2026-08-04 39° 39° 39° 38° 41° — — 38–41°
6d · 2026-08-05 38° 39° 38° 38° 41° 39° — 38–41°
5d · 2026-08-06 38° 39° 39° 38° 40° 40° 37° 37–40°
4d · 2026-08-07 39° 39° 39° 38° 41° 39° 38° 38–41°
3d · 2026-08-08 39° 38° 40° 37° 41° 39° 38° 37–41°
2d · 2026-08-09 38° 37° 40° 37° 40° 38° 37° 37–40°
1d · 2026-08-10 38° 37° 39° 38° 38° 39° 38° 37–39°
0d · 2026-08-11 38° 38° 39° 37° 38° 39° 38° 37–39°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.