The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Aug 10?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 32° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. ERA5 says the day verified at 37° — partly cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°.

13 days out the models said 32–42; it hit 37. GEM led (off 0.1°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
14d · 2026-07-27 37° 35° — — 40° — — 35–40°
13d · 2026-07-28 32° 39° 39° — 42° — — 32–42°
12d · 2026-07-29 40° 38° 40° — 41° — — 38–41°
11d · 2026-07-30 30° 37° 40° — 42° — — 30–42°
10d · 2026-07-31 37° 39° 39° — 41° — — 37–41°
9d · 2026-08-01 38° 39° 39° — 42° — — 38–42°
8d · 2026-08-02 35° 38° 39° 38° 35° — — 35–39°
7d · 2026-08-03 38° 38° 38° 38° 38° — — 38–38°
6d · 2026-08-04 38° 39° 39° 38° 38° 38° — 38–39°
5d · 2026-08-05 37° 38° 38° 37° 40° 39° 32° 32–40°
4d · 2026-08-06 37° 38° 37° 37° 40° 38° 35° 35–40°
3d · 2026-08-07 38° 38° 38° 37° 40° 38° 37° 37–40°
2d · 2026-08-08 38° 37° 39° 38° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
1d · 2026-08-09 37° 36° 38° 36° 38° 38° 38° 36–38°
0d · 2026-08-10 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 38° 38° 37–38°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.