The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sun Aug 9?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sun Aug 9 high anywhere from 36° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. ERA5 says the day verified at 36° with 4.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 2° hot.

13 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 36. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
13d · 2026-07-27 36° 36° 41° — 40° — — 36–41°
12d · 2026-07-28 36° 37° 39° — 41° — — 36–41°
11d · 2026-07-29 40° 36° 40° — 40° — — 36–40°
10d · 2026-07-30 32° 36° 39° — 41° — — 32–41°
9d · 2026-07-31 37° 39° 39° — 40° — — 37–40°
8d · 2026-08-01 38° 38° 39° 37° 41° — — 37–41°
7d · 2026-08-02 32° 37° 37° 37° 38° — — 32–38°
6d · 2026-08-03 37° 38° 38° 38° 39° 39° — 37–39°
5d · 2026-08-04 38° 39° 40° 37° 39° 39° 39° 37–40°
4d · 2026-08-05 37° 38° 39° 37° 40° 39° 38° 37–40°
3d · 2026-08-06 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 38° 36° 36–39°
2d · 2026-08-07 38° 38° 38° 38° 39° 39° 37° 37–39°
1d · 2026-08-08 37° 37° 39° 38° 38° 38° 39° 37–39°
0d · 2026-08-09 37° 37° 39° 36° 38° 37° 38° 36–39°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.