The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Thu Aug 6?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

10 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 31° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. ERA5 says the day verified at 38° — cloudy.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 1° hot.

10 days out the models said 31–41; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 1°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-07-27 31° 37° 41° — 41° — — 31–41°
9d · 2026-07-28 32° 34° 41° — 42° — — 32–42°
8d · 2026-07-29 38° 38° 41° 35° 40° — — 35–41°
7d · 2026-07-30 37° 39° 40° 37° 41° — — 37–41°
6d · 2026-07-31 38° 38° 40° 37° 41° 37° — 37–41°
5d · 2026-08-01 38° 38° 40° 37° 40° 39° 38° 37–40°
4d · 2026-08-02 37° 38° 40° 37° 41° 38° 37° 37–41°
3d · 2026-08-03 38° 39° 39° 38° 40° 39° 39° 38–40°
2d · 2026-08-04 38° 39° 39° 38° 40° 39° 38° 38–40°
1d · 2026-08-05 38° 39° 39° 37° 38° 38° 38° 37–39°
0d · 2026-08-06 38° 39° 40° 37° 39° 38° 38° 37–40°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.