Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Aug 4?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
8 days out, 5 models put Dallas's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 92° to 106°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 102°. ERA5 says the day verified at 102° — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 92° | 94° | 103° | 100° | 106° | — | — | 92–106° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 98° | 99° | 104° | 97° | 109° | — | — | 97–109° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 99° | 97° | 104° | 99° | 106° | 106° | — | 97–106° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 98° | 100° | 106° | 99° | 109° | 100° | 102° | 98–109° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 100° | 100° | 108° | 100° | 109° | 106° | 107° | 100–109° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 100° | 98° | 108° | 101° | 110° | 103° | 103° | 98–110° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 100° | 100° | 104° | 99° | 109° | 101° | 101° | 99–109° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 102° | 101° | 104° | 100° | 101° | 101° | 101° | 100–104° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 102° | 102° | 103° | 100° | 102° | 101° | 101° | 100–103° |
| actual | 102° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.