Was the forecast right for Dallas on Thu Jul 30?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
3 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 97° to 107°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 101°. ERA5 says the day verified at 102° — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 98° | 97° | 104° | 101° | 107° | 102° | 101° | 97–107° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 99° | 101° | 105° | 101° | 107° | 102° | 102° | 99–107° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 98° | 100° | 104° | 100° | 102° | 102° | 102° | 98–104° |
| 0d · 2026-07-30 | 99° | 101° | 103° | 100° | 101° | 100° | 101° | 99–103° |
| actual | 102° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.