Was the forecast right for Chicago on Wed Aug 12?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Wed Aug 12 high anywhere from 24° to 30°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 25°. ERA5 says the day verified at 28° with 4.1 mm of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-28 | — | 22° | — | — | 27° | — | — | 22–27° |
| 14d · 2026-07-29 | 23° | 23° | — | — | 32° | — | — | 23–32° |
| 13d · 2026-07-30 | 29° | 30° | 28° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–30° |
| 12d · 2026-07-31 | 26° | 25° | 24° | — | 25° | — | — | 24–26° |
| 11d · 2026-08-01 | 24° | 26° | 27° | — | 26° | — | — | 24–27° |
| 10d · 2026-08-02 | 24° | 25° | 34° | — | 31° | — | — | 24–34° |
| 9d · 2026-08-03 | 24° | 25° | 35° | — | 22° | — | — | 22–35° |
| 8d · 2026-08-04 | 27° | 27° | 26° | 26° | 26° | — | — | 26–27° |
| 7d · 2026-08-05 | 27° | 27° | 26° | 26° | 26° | — | — | 26–27° |
| 6d · 2026-08-06 | 24° | 27° | 25° | 30° | 26° | 29° | — | 24–30° |
| 5d · 2026-08-07 | 25° | 27° | 26° | 23° | 24° | 29° | 27° | 23–29° |
| 4d · 2026-08-08 | 25° | 27° | 30° | 24° | 26° | 28° | 36° | 24–36° |
| 3d · 2026-08-09 | 25° | 26° | 28° | 27° | 27° | 30° | 29° | 25–30° |
| 2d · 2026-08-10 | 25° | 27° | 28° | 24° | 25° | 28° | 27° | 24–28° |
| 1d · 2026-08-11 | 26° | 24° | 27° | 24° | 23° | 30° | 27° | 23–30° |
| 0d · 2026-08-12 | 25° | 25° | 28° | 25° | 25° | 28° | 25° | 25–28° |
| actual | 28° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.