Was the forecast right for Chicago on Sat Aug 8?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
12 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Sat Aug 8 high anywhere from 73° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. ERA5 says the day verified at 80° — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-07-27 | 85° | 73° | 93° | — | 84° | — | — | 73–93° |
| 11d · 2026-07-28 | 82° | 82° | 93° | — | 94° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 10d · 2026-07-29 | 81° | 79° | 88° | — | 82° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 9d · 2026-07-30 | 82° | 82° | 89° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–89° |
| 8d · 2026-07-31 | 81° | 82° | 86° | 77° | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-01 | 81° | 81° | 86° | 79° | 89° | — | — | 79–89° |
| 6d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 83° | 85° | 80° | 90° | 89° | — | 80–90° |
| 5d · 2026-08-03 | 84° | 85° | 83° | 85° | 86° | 89° | 89° | 83–89° |
| 4d · 2026-08-04 | 81° | 84° | 86° | 81° | 89° | 88° | 87° | 81–89° |
| 3d · 2026-08-05 | 82° | 84° | 82° | 81° | 88° | 85° | 82° | 81–88° |
| 2d · 2026-08-06 | 80° | 82° | 81° | 81° | 83° | 87° | 84° | 80–87° |
| 1d · 2026-08-07 | 80° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 79° | 82° | 82° | 79–82° |
| 0d · 2026-08-08 | 80° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 76° | 83° | 84° | 76–84° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.