Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Mon Aug 31?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
9 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 81° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 92° against the CLT observations — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 81° | 84° | 89° | — | 90° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 90° | 84° | 92° | 85° | 90° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 88° | 94° | 91° | 86° | 98° | — | — | 86–98° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 88° | 89° | 90° | 83° | 94° | 91° | — | 83–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 91° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 98° | 92° | 91° | 90–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 91° | 92° | 92° | 89° | 97° | 88° | 88° | 88–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 92° | 91° | 91° | 90° | 96° | 95° | 90° | 90–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 92° | 93° | 95° | 92° | 95° | 95° | 89° | 89–95° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 92° | 94° | 94° | 94° | 97° | 94° | 90° | 90–97° |
| 0d · 2026-08-31 | 92° | 92° | 93° | 95° | 96° | 91° | 90° | 90–96° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.