Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Aug 30?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
8 days out, 5 models put Charlotte's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 78° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 86° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. GFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 78° | 81° | 88° | 80° | 91° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 87° | 79° | 90° | 84° | 96° | — | — | 79–96° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 83° | 91° | 87° | 82° | 95° | 89° | — | 82–95° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 84° | 87° | 75° | 90° | 83° | 79° | 75–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 88° | 87° | 87° | 94° | 86° | 89° | 86–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 87° | 88° | 89° | 83° | 94° | 88° | 80° | 80–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 84° | 85° | 87° | 90° | 88° | 84° | 84–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 87° | 87° | 89° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 85° | 85–90° |
| 0d · 2026-08-30 | 87° | 90° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 84° | 84–92° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.