Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Wed Aug 26?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
4 days out, 7 models put Charlotte's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 84° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the CLT observations, with 0.34 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-22 | 87° | 89° | 90° | 84° | 94° | 87° | 86° | 84–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-23 | 86° | 88° | 89° | 85° | 94° | 87° | 86° | 85–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-24 | 85° | 87° | 91° | 89° | 92° | 85° | 81° | 81–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-25 | 87° | 87° | 91° | 90° | 91° | 87° | 86° | 86–91° |
| 0d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 89° | 88° | 81° | 92° | 85° | 84° | 81–92° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.