Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Aug 18?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Tue Aug 18 high anywhere from 81° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 93° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-03 | — | 72° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 72–92° |
| 14d · 2026-08-04 | 76° | 89° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 13d · 2026-08-05 | 81° | 96° | 95° | — | 88° | — | — | 81–96° |
| 12d · 2026-08-06 | 89° | 98° | 92° | — | 94° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 11d · 2026-08-07 | 94° | 92° | 91° | — | 92° | — | — | 91–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-08 | 92° | 97° | 95° | — | 92° | — | — | 92–97° |
| 9d · 2026-08-09 | 88° | 91° | 94° | — | 90° | — | — | 88–94° |
| 8d · 2026-08-10 | 92° | 89° | 94° | 90° | 93° | — | — | 89–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-11 | 92° | 89° | 94° | 88° | 95° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 6d · 2026-08-12 | 90° | 88° | 95° | 83° | 100° | 93° | — | 83–100° |
| 5d · 2026-08-13 | 90° | 91° | 100° | 92° | 100° | 96° | 95° | 90–100° |
| 4d · 2026-08-14 | 91° | 94° | 96° | 86° | 100° | 94° | 92° | 86–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-15 | 91° | 92° | 95° | 89° | 100° | 94° | 91° | 89–100° |
| 2d · 2026-08-16 | 92° | 94° | 94° | 90° | 100° | 93° | 94° | 90–100° |
| 1d · 2026-08-17 | 93° | 96° | 93° | 97° | 95° | 92° | 93° | 92–97° |
| 0d · 2026-08-18 | 93° | 96° | 93° | 97° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 92–97° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.