Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Aug 16?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 23° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 36° with 1.3 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ICON ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-01 | — | 30° | — | — | 37° | — | — | 30–37° |
| 14d · 2026-08-02 | 30° | 28° | — | — | 36° | — | — | 28–36° |
| 13d · 2026-08-03 | 33° | 23° | 30° | — | 25° | — | — | 23–33° |
| 12d · 2026-08-04 | 28° | 26° | 30° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–30° |
| 11d · 2026-08-05 | 31° | 31° | 34° | — | 28° | — | — | 28–34° |
| 10d · 2026-08-06 | 35° | 30° | 32° | — | 39° | — | — | 30–39° |
| 9d · 2026-08-07 | 35° | 32° | 34° | — | 36° | — | — | 32–36° |
| 8d · 2026-08-08 | 33° | 31° | 38° | 29° | 32° | — | — | 29–38° |
| 7d · 2026-08-09 | 31° | 36° | 35° | 25° | 32° | — | — | 25–36° |
| 6d · 2026-08-10 | 32° | 36° | 38° | 30° | 38° | 37° | — | 30–38° |
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 32° | 36° | 36° | 30° | 38° | 38° | 37° | 30–38° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 35° | 36° | 34° | 32° | 39° | 36° | 37° | 32–39° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 34° | 35° | 36° | 32° | 39° | 35° | 34° | 32–39° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 34° | 36° | 35° | 33° | 40° | 32° | 36° | 32–40° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 34° | 36° | 35° | 37° | 37° | 34° | 36° | 34–37° |
| 0d · 2026-08-16 | 35° | 36° | 34° | 37° | 36° | 33° | 35° | 33–37° |
| actual | 36° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.