Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Aug 9?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sun Aug 9 high anywhere from 84° to 99°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 93°. ERA5 says the day verified at 91° with 0.05 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-25 | — | 87° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 87–96° |
| 14d · 2026-07-26 | — | 87° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 87–96° |
| 13d · 2026-07-27 | 93° | 84° | 89° | — | 99° | — | — | 84–99° |
| 12d · 2026-07-28 | 85° | 92° | 86° | — | 94° | — | — | 85–94° |
| 11d · 2026-07-29 | 86° | 94° | 88° | — | 100° | — | — | 86–100° |
| 10d · 2026-07-30 | 86° | 94° | 95° | — | 98° | — | — | 86–98° |
| 9d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 85° | 99° | — | 92° | — | — | 85–99° |
| 8d · 2026-08-01 | 88° | 89° | 94° | 86° | 94° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-02 | 88° | 90° | 79° | 79° | 94° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-03 | 89° | 90° | 85° | 90° | 94° | 91° | — | 85–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-04 | 87° | 90° | 89° | 90° | 96° | 90° | 95° | 87–96° |
| 4d · 2026-08-05 | 89° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 94° | 91° | 91° | 89–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-06 | 91° | 93° | 90° | 88° | 93° | 94° | 95° | 88–95° |
| 2d · 2026-08-07 | 90° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 94° | 94° | 94° | 90–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-08 | 91° | 93° | 92° | 97° | 95° | 93° | 92° | 91–97° |
| 0d · 2026-08-09 | 91° | 94° | 93° | 96° | 93° | 90° | 91° | 90–96° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.