Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Aug 4?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
10 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 78° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. ERA5 says the day verified at 81° with 0.33 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-25 | 85° | 78° | 83° | — | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 85° | 78° | 83° | — | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 90° | 84° | 89° | 84° | 95° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 90° | 85° | 89° | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 82° | 79° | 86° | 84° | 76° | 81° | — | 76–86° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 83° | 80° | 85° | 83° | 86° | 80° | 82° | 80–86° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 78° | 90° | 87° | 87° | 83° | 87° | 78–90° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 84° | 87° | 86° | 81° | 83° | 85° | 84° | 81–87° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 85° | 82° | 83° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 82–85° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 81° | 83° | 81° | 87° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 81–87° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 82° | 82° | 81° | 87° | 83° | 81° | 82° | 81–87° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.