Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Wed Jul 29?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
4 days out, 7 models put Charlotte's Wed Jul 29 high anywhere from 85° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.8°. GEM ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-25 | 88° | 89° | 86° | 85° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 85–94° |
| 3d · 2026-07-26 | 88° | 89° | 86° | 85° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 85–94° |
| 2d · 2026-07-27 | 88° | 89° | 86° | 83° | 95° | 91° | 91° | 83–95° |
| 1d · 2026-07-28 | 89° | 90° | 88° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 88–93° |
| 0d · 2026-07-29 | 90° | 91° | 88° | 94° | 86° | 89° | 91° | 86–94° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.