Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Jul 28?

Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

3 days out, 7 models put Charlotte's Tue Jul 28 high anywhere from 89° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. ERA5 says the day verified at 91° with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIFS ran 4° cold.

3 days out the models said 89–98; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 0.8°); AIFS ran 4° cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-25	89°	92°	91°	92°	96°	91°	98°	89–98°
2d · 2026-07-26	89°	92°	91°	92°	96°	91°	98°	89–98°
1d · 2026-07-27	90°	92°	90°	96°	97°	91°	97°	90–97°
0d · 2026-07-28	88°	92°	92°	89°	94°	89°	93°	88–94°
actual								91°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.