The Spread

Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Tue Aug 25?

Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations

3 days out, 7 models put Buffalo's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 20° to 23°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 23°. The day verified at 24° against the BUF observations — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 20–23; it hit 24. GFS led (off 0.5°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-08-22 22° 20° 21° 22° 22° 23° 21° 20–23°
2d · 2026-08-23 21° 20° 21° 22° 22° 22° 23° 20–23°
1d · 2026-08-24 22° 21° 23° 24° 22° 22° 23° 21–24°
0d · 2026-08-25 22° 22° 22° 25° 23° 23° 23° 22–25°
actual 24°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.