Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sat Aug 15?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 76° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 83° — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.6°. GEM ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-31 | — | 67° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 67–80° |
| 14d · 2026-08-01 | 76° | 80° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 76–81° |
| 13d · 2026-08-02 | 80° | 78° | 76° | — | 90° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-03 | 82° | 71° | 67° | — | 78° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 11d · 2026-08-04 | 70° | 72° | 74° | — | 73° | — | — | 70–74° |
| 10d · 2026-08-05 | 70° | 74° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 70–74° |
| 9d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 68° | 68° | — | 80° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 8d · 2026-08-07 | 75° | 69° | 82° | 74° | 79° | — | — | 69–82° |
| 7d · 2026-08-08 | 74° | 69° | 77° | 74° | 76° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 6d · 2026-08-09 | 75° | 73° | 76° | 75° | 72° | 77° | — | 72–77° |
| 5d · 2026-08-10 | 72° | 71° | 76° | 78° | 79° | 75° | 80° | 71–80° |
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 77° | 77° | 74° | 75° | 78° | 81° | 77° | 74–81° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 81° | 81° | 80° | 78° | 86° | 84° | 81° | 78–86° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 81° | 78° | 80° | 80° | 84° | 85° | 81° | 78–85° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 81° | 80° | 80° | 88° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 80–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-15 | 81° | 81° | 81° | 87° | 84° | 80° | 80° | 80–87° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.