Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Fri Aug 14?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 76° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 82° — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-30 | — | 71° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 71–76° |
| 14d · 2026-07-31 | 82° | 75° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 13d · 2026-08-01 | 77° | 78° | 76° | — | 83° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 12d · 2026-08-02 | 79° | 77° | 78° | — | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 11d · 2026-08-03 | 80° | 66° | 80° | — | 72° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 10d · 2026-08-04 | 70° | 72° | 71° | — | 72° | — | — | 70–72° |
| 9d · 2026-08-05 | 71° | 69° | 78° | — | 73° | — | — | 69–78° |
| 8d · 2026-08-06 | 79° | 71° | 72° | 71° | 78° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 7d · 2026-08-07 | 78° | 69° | 78° | 72° | 79° | — | — | 69–79° |
| 6d · 2026-08-08 | 72° | 69° | 79° | 71° | 66° | 81° | — | 66–81° |
| 5d · 2026-08-09 | 75° | 71° | 76° | 73° | 72° | 76° | 76° | 71–76° |
| 4d · 2026-08-10 | 74° | 71° | 77° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 82° | 71–82° |
| 3d · 2026-08-11 | 77° | 75° | 76° | 72° | 75° | 82° | 80° | 72–82° |
| 2d · 2026-08-12 | 79° | 77° | 80° | 80° | 85° | 81° | 82° | 77–85° |
| 1d · 2026-08-13 | 81° | 77° | 79° | 84° | 82° | 81° | 81° | 77–84° |
| 0d · 2026-08-14 | 82° | 80° | 80° | 86° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 80–86° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.