Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Mon Aug 10?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 74° to 82°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. ERA5 says the day verified at 77° with 0.23 in of precipitation — rain.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 75° | 71° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 71–75° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 76° | 74° | 78° | — | 82° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 75° | 73° | 83° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–83° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 81° | 79° | 76° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 82° | 77° | 76° | — | 89° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 76° | 74° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 75° | 75° | 78° | 76° | 84° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 78° | 80° | 82° | 74° | 81° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 79° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 86° | 76° | — | 76–86° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 81° | 82° | 80° | 74° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 74–82° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 81° | 81° | 78° | 78° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 78–82° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 82° | 82° | 78° | 73° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 73–82° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 74° | 75° | 79° | 79° | 74–80° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 78° | 80° | 76° | 79° | 78° | 80° | 82° | 76–82° |
| 0d · 2026-08-10 | 77° | 79° | 78° | 77° | 82° | 76° | 82° | 76–82° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.