Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Tue Aug 4?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
8 days out, 5 models put Buffalo's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 77° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. ERA5 says the day verified at 79° — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 83° | 82° | 83° | 77° | 77° | — | — | 77–83° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 80° | 81° | 79° | 77° | 87° | — | — | 77–87° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 80° | 78° | 81° | 79° | 80° | 75° | — | 75–81° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 79° | 82° | 80° | 77° | 76° | 81° | 83° | 76–83° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 79° | 81° | 79° | 77° | 81° | 84° | 85° | 77–85° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 80° | 79° | 81° | 77° | 83° | 85° | 85° | 77–85° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 80° | 79° | 76° | 76° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 76–84° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 79° | 78° | 77° | 83° | 80° | 81° | 81° | 77–83° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 79° | 79° | 78° | 81° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 78–82° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.