Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Mon Aug 3?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
7 days out, 5 models put Buffalo's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 73° to 82°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. ERA5 says the day verified at 77° with 0.07 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. GEM ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 80° | 76° | 82° | 74° | 73° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 76° | 77° | 76° | 72° | 84° | 82° | — | 72–84° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 75° | 73° | 79° | 76° | 78° | 77° | 85° | 73–85° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 75° | 73° | 75° | 73° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 73–78° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 76° | 74° | 76° | 70° | 77° | 79° | 79° | 70–79° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 76° | 74° | 77° | 73° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 73–78° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 76° | 75° | 77° | 82° | 78° | 78° | 80° | 75–82° |
| 0d · 2026-08-03 | 76° | 75° | 76° | 81° | 78° | 78° | 80° | 75–81° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.