The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Tue Sep 1?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

12 days out, 4 models put Boston's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 69° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 69° against the BOS observations, with 0.26 in of precipitation — showers.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 2° hot.

12 days out the models said 69–90; it hit 69. GEM led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 2°F hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
12d · 2026-08-20 74° 69° 70° 90° 69–90°
11d · 2026-08-21 76° 87° 73° 93° 73–93°
10d · 2026-08-22 75° 80° 73° 78° 73–80°
9d · 2026-08-23 77° 84° 78° 66° 66–84°
8d · 2026-08-24 82° 77° 71° 72° 72° 71–82°
7d · 2026-08-25 82° 84° 87° 76° 87° 76–87°
6d · 2026-08-26 73° 73° 82° 72° 69° 70° 69–82°
5d · 2026-08-27 72° 79° 80° 72° 66° 76° 80° 66–80°
4d · 2026-08-28 73° 71° 77° 70° 74° 72° 73° 70–77°
3d · 2026-08-29 71° 70° 80° 79° 70° 69° 74° 69–80°
2d · 2026-08-30 67° 67° 73° 70° 70° 69° 71° 67–73°
1d · 2026-08-31 68° 68° 71° 73° 69° 67° 72° 67–73°
0d · 2026-09-01 68° 68° 67° 69° 68° 68° 71° 67–71°
actual 69°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.