The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Tue Aug 25?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

5 days out, 7 models put Boston's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 25° to 27°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 27° against the BOS observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

5 days out the models said 25–27; it hit 27. GEM led (off 0.7°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
5d · 2026-08-20 25° 25° 27° 25° 25° 26° 26° 25–27°
4d · 2026-08-21 24° 25° 25° 23° 24° 25° 27° 23–27°
3d · 2026-08-22 24° 24° 24° 25° 24° 25° 27° 24–27°
2d · 2026-08-23 25° 26° 25° 27° 26° 26° 26° 25–27°
1d · 2026-08-24 25° 26° 26° 28° 26° 26° 27° 25–28°
0d · 2026-08-25 26° 26° 26° 28° 26° 26° 26° 26–28°
actual 27°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.