The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Mon Aug 24?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

4 days out, 7 models put Boston's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 25° to 29°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 28°. The day verified at 29° against the BOS observations — cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

4 days out the models said 25–29; it hit 29. GEM led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-08-20 26° 27° 28° 25° 26° 29° 26° 25–29°
3d · 2026-08-21 26° 27° 27° 25° 27° 28° 28° 25–28°
2d · 2026-08-22 26° 27° 27° 26° 27° 28° 29° 26–29°
1d · 2026-08-23 26° 27° 26° 29° 28° 28° 28° 26–29°
0d · 2026-08-24 26° 28° 27° 29° 28° 28° 28° 26–29°
actual 29°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.