Was the forecast right for Boston on Fri Aug 7?
Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
11 days out, 4 models put Boston's Fri Aug 7 high anywhere from 80° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 91°. ERA5 says the day verified at 96° with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-07-27 | 80° | 84° | 81° | — | 88° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 10d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 80° | 89° | — | 87° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 9d · 2026-07-29 | 86° | 90° | 81° | — | 84° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 8d · 2026-07-30 | 86° | 84° | 87° | 91° | 80° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 7d · 2026-07-31 | 85° | 97° | 86° | 88° | 82° | — | — | 82–97° |
| 6d · 2026-08-01 | 87° | 97° | 82° | 84° | 91° | 88° | — | 82–97° |
| 5d · 2026-08-02 | 88° | 97° | 89° | 87° | 89° | 93° | 93° | 87–97° |
| 4d · 2026-08-03 | 87° | 93° | 89° | 90° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 87–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-04 | 87° | 94° | 90° | 90° | 89° | 90° | 86° | 86–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-05 | 87° | 94° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-06 | 89° | 94° | 93° | 93° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 89–94° |
| 0d · 2026-08-07 | 87° | 93° | 90° | 93° | 95° | 91° | 91° | 87–95° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.