Was the forecast right for Boston on Mon Aug 3?
Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
7 days out, 5 models put Boston's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 70° to 81°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. ERA5 says the day verified at 76° with 1.33 in of precipitation — rain.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 81° | 81° | 79° | 78° | 70° | — | — | 70–81° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 79° | 80° | 85° | 73° | 80° | 80° | — | 73–85° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 81° | 83° | 82° | 82° | 76° | 86° | 77° | 76–86° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 77° | 83° | 76° | 82° | 83° | 78° | 84° | 76–84° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 78° | 80° | 80° | 74° | 86° | 76° | 86° | 74–86° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 77° | 80° | 78° | 82° | 73° | 81° | 81° | 73–82° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 78° | 78° | 78° | 80° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 78–83° |
| 0d · 2026-08-03 | 78° | 77° | 79° | 78° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 77–80° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.