Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sun Aug 30?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
8 days out, 5 models put Atlanta's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 81° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 91° against the ATL observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 81° | 82° | 88° | 81° | 96° | — | — | 81–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 88° | 85° | 89° | 88° | 96° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 85° | 90° | 89° | 80° | 94° | 89° | — | 80–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 84° | 89° | 81° | 90° | 89° | 81° | 81–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 85° | 85° | 90° | 86° | 94° | 81° | 89° | 81–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 86° | 90° | 82° | 93° | 89° | 79° | 79–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 84° | 85° | 87° | 88° | 85° | 83° | 83–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 87° | 86° | 90° | 86° | 89° | 89° | 84° | 84–90° |
| 0d · 2026-08-30 | 88° | 88° | 89° | 86° | 90° | 88° | 88° | 86–90° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.