Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sat Aug 29?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
7 days out, 5 models put Atlanta's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 78° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the ATL observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. GEM ran 10° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-22 | 84° | 87° | 88° | 78° | 95° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 6d · 2026-08-23 | 87° | 88° | 88° | 86° | 92° | 94° | — | 86–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-24 | 85° | 89° | 88° | 83° | 91° | 89° | 79° | 79–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 84° | 83° | 88° | 77° | 84° | 85° | 81° | 77–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 84° | 84° | 90° | 88° | 93° | 87° | 83° | 83–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 86° | 89° | 82° | 89° | 88° | 84° | 82–89° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 85° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 89° | 85° | 84° | 84–89° |
| 0d · 2026-08-29 | 84° | 86° | 88° | 79° | 90° | 87° | 83° | 79–90° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.