The Spread

Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Fri Aug 28?

Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations

6 days out, 6 models put Atlanta's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 72° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 93° against the ATL observations — showers.

GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIFS ran 6° cold.

6 days out the models said 72–91; it hit 93. GFS led (off 1.1°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
6d · 2026-08-22 85° 87° 86° 72° 91° 82° 72–91°
5d · 2026-08-23 87° 87° 87° 84° 89° 92° 89° 84–92°
4d · 2026-08-24 86° 87° 84° 87° 88° 92° 88° 84–92°
3d · 2026-08-25 83° 84° 87° 80° 85° 80° 87° 80–87°
2d · 2026-08-26 86° 88° 91° 86° 81° 87° 95° 81–95°
1d · 2026-08-27 87° 88° 90° 85° 89° 90° 87° 85–90°
0d · 2026-08-28 87° 89° 89° 87° 94° 87° 89° 87–94°
actual 93°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.