The Spread

Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Thu Aug 27?

Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations

5 days out, 7 models put Atlanta's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 24° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 29°. The day verified at 32° against the ATL observations, with 14.7 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. UKMO ran 4° cold.

5 days out the models said 24–33; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 1.2°C); UKMO ran 4°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
5d · 2026-08-22 27° 25° 24° 28° 30° 27° 33° 24–33°
4d · 2026-08-23 27° 28° 28° 32° 33° 31° 32° 27–33°
3d · 2026-08-24 27° 27° 32° 31° 28° 32° 33° 27–33°
2d · 2026-08-25 27° 28° 31° 30° 25° 30° 27° 25–31°
1d · 2026-08-26 30° 31° 33° 32° 33° 30° 34° 30–34°
0d · 2026-08-27 28° 30° 29° 30° 34° 29° 28° 28–34°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.