Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Tue Aug 25?

Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations

3 days out, 7 models put Atlanta's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 82° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 94° against the ATL observations — partly cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 6° cold.

3 days out the models said 82–93; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-22	89°	88°	82°	88°	93°	89°	85°	82–93°
2d · 2026-08-23	90°	89°	95°	89°	94°	90°	88°	88–95°
1d · 2026-08-24	90°	90°	96°	88°	96°	90°	90°	88–96°
0d · 2026-08-25	88°	91°	94°	89°	96°	90°	90°	88–96°
actual								94°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.