Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Thu Aug 6?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
10 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 88° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. ERA5 says the day verified at 86° with 0.25 in of precipitation — rain.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-27 | 90° | 88° | 90° | — | 100° | — | — | 88–100° |
| 9d · 2026-07-28 | 82° | 90° | 86° | — | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 8d · 2026-07-29 | 85° | 87° | 84° | 86° | 95° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 7d · 2026-07-30 | 83° | 86° | 90° | 84° | 93° | — | — | 83–93° |
| 6d · 2026-07-31 | 83° | 82° | 94° | 85° | 86° | 80° | — | 80–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 84° | 91° | 86° | 93° | 88° | 94° | 82–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 85° | 87° | 84° | 93° | 88° | 88° | 84–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-03 | 85° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 93° | 87° | 90° | 85–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-04 | 86° | 87° | 85° | 89° | 94° | 86° | 91° | 85–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 86° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 85° | 91° | 84–91° |
| 0d · 2026-08-06 | 83° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 88° | 86° | 85° | 83–88° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.