Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Wed Aug 5?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
9 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 86° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. ERA5 says the day verified at 86° with 1.0 in of precipitation — rain.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 86° | 92° | — | 98° | — | — | 86–98° |
| 8d · 2026-07-28 | 82° | 89° | 86° | 84° | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 7d · 2026-07-29 | 86° | 86° | 90° | 85° | 86° | — | — | 85–90° |
| 6d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 84° | 86° | 83° | 96° | 85° | — | 83–96° |
| 5d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 83° | 92° | 88° | 92° | 87° | 92° | 83–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 84° | 88° | 84° | 87° | 86° | 93° | 83–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 84° | 80° | 79° | 91° | 83° | 91° | 79–91° |
| 2d · 2026-08-03 | 83° | 85° | 83° | 82° | 91° | 88° | 83° | 82–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-04 | 83° | 86° | 82° | 84° | 88° | 84° | 81° | 81–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-05 | 82° | 87° | 82° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 87° | 82–87° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.