Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sun Aug 2?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
6 days out, 6 models put Atlanta's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 77° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° with 0.22 in of precipitation — rain.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 82° | 81° | 91° | 77° | 77° | 83° | — | 77–91° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 82° | 81° | 88° | 78° | 82° | 75° | 87° | 75–88° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 84° | 82° | 82° | 79° | 83° | 79° | 90° | 79–90° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 83° | 82° | 87° | 83° | 91° | 83° | 91° | 82–91° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 85° | 85° | 81° | 86° | 85° | 91° | 81–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 85° | 85° | 86° | 83° | 92° | 83° | 92° | 83–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 86° | 84° | 84° | 89° | 87° | 90° | 84–90° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.