Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Tue Oct 13?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 16° to 24°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the STL observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 19° | — | — | 27° | — | — | 19–27° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 16° | 21° | 16° | — | 24° | — | — | 16–24° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 11° | 19° | 27° | — | 19° | — | — | 11–27° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 15° | 14° | 27° | — | 25° | — | — | 14–27° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 17° | 15° | 30° | — | 27° | — | — | 15–30° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 24° | 20° | 19° | — | 28° | — | — | 19–28° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 26° | 14° | 28° | 27° | 31° | — | — | 14–31° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 31° | 26° | 29° | 27° | 32° | — | — | 26–32° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 26° | 28° | 29° | 30° | 32° | — | — | 26–32° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 26° | 25° | 23° | 33° | 27° | 24° | 26° | 23–33° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 30° | 31° | 31° | 35° | 34° | 32° | 32° | 30–35° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 32° | 31° | 33° | 36° | 31° | 33° | 31° | 31–36° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 32° | 32° | 33° | 34° | 34° | 34° | 32° | 32–34° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 32° | 31° | 34° | 34° | 35° | 35° | 32° | 31–35° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 32° | 34° | 34° | 35° | 34° | 32° | 32–35° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.