The Spread

Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Thu Sep 3?

St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations

9 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 36° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 37° against the STL observations — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° hot.

9 days out the models said 36–38; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-08-25 36° 38° 36° — 37° — — 36–38°
8d · 2026-08-26 35° 37° 37° 33° 38° — — 33–38°
7d · 2026-08-27 35° 36° 39° 37° 42° — — 35–42°
6d · 2026-08-28 33° 36° 38° 37° 40° 38° — 33–40°
5d · 2026-08-29 35° 35° 39° 38° 40° 39° 35° 35–40°
4d · 2026-08-30 36° 35° 39° 37° 40° 38° 36° 35–40°
3d · 2026-08-31 36° 36° 38° 38° 39° 38° 36° 36–39°
2d · 2026-09-01 36° 36° 37° 37° 38° 37° 36° 36–38°
1d · 2026-09-02 37° 37° 37° 39° 40° 37° 36° 36–40°
0d · 2026-09-03 37° 38° 37° 38° 39° 37° 36° 36–39°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.