Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Wed Sep 2?

St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations

8 days out, 5 models put St. Louis's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 34° to 40°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the STL observations — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 2° warm.

8 days out the models said 34–40; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
8d · 2026-08-25	36°	37°	36°	34°	40°	—	—	34–40°
7d · 2026-08-26	31°	37°	36°	36°	43°	—	—	31–43°
6d · 2026-08-27	33°	36°	38°	36°	41°	36°	35°	33–41°
5d · 2026-08-28	36°	35°	39°	37°	41°	38°	35°	35–41°
4d · 2026-08-29	37°	35°	38°	36°	40°	38°	36°	35–40°
3d · 2026-08-30	37°	36°	37°	37°	39°	38°	36°	36–39°
2d · 2026-08-31	37°	37°	37°	37°	39°	37°	35°	35–39°
1d · 2026-09-01	37°	37°	37°	39°	40°	37°	36°	36–40°
actual								38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.