The Spread

Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Wed Sep 2?

St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations

8 days out, 5 models put St. Louis's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 31° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the STL observations — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 2° hot.

8 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
8d · 2026-08-25 31° 37° 31° 35° 34° — — 31–37°
7d · 2026-08-26 32° 37° 37° 37° 38° — — 32–38°
6d · 2026-08-27 33° 35° 39° 36° 41° 37° — 33–41°
5d · 2026-08-28 36° 34° 38° 36° 40° 37° 32° 32–40°
4d · 2026-08-29 37° 35° 39° 37° 41° 38° 35° 35–41°
3d · 2026-08-30 36° 35° 38° 37° 40° 38° 36° 35–40°
2d · 2026-08-31 37° 36° 38° 37° 40° 38° 36° 36–40°
1d · 2026-09-01 37° 37° 38° 39° 40° 37° 36° 36–40°
0d · 2026-09-02 37° 38° 37° 39° 39° 37° 37° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.