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Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Tue Sep 1?

St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations

7 days out, 5 models put St. Louis's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 33° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the STL observations — partly cloudy.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 2° warm.

7 days out the models said 33–39; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-08-25 35° 34° 36° 33° 39° — — 33–39°
6d · 2026-08-26 36° 36° 37° 35° 39° 36° 32° 32–39°
5d · 2026-08-27 36° 35° 38° 36° 42° 37° 35° 35–42°
4d · 2026-08-28 36° 35° 38° 37° 40° 38° 34° 34–40°
3d · 2026-08-29 37° 35° 39° 36° 41° 37° 36° 35–41°
2d · 2026-08-30 37° 36° 37° 37° 40° 38° 36° 36–40°
1d · 2026-08-31 37° 37° 37° 40° 38° 38° 36° 36–40°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.