The Spread

Was the forecast right for Seattle on Wed Sep 9?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations

14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 17° to 24°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 25°. The day verified at 26° against the SEA observations — cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 3° cold.

14 days out the models said 17–24; it hit 26. GEM led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-25 19° 31° 19–31°
14d · 2026-08-26 17° 24° 18° 17° 17–24°
13d · 2026-08-27 18° 12° 25° 23° 12–25°
12d · 2026-08-28 19° 26° 18° 21° 18–26°
11d · 2026-08-29 20° 20° 21° 31° 20–31°
10d · 2026-08-30 21° 17° 19° 25° 17–25°
9d · 2026-08-31 20° 22° 20° 19° 23° 19–23°
8d · 2026-09-01 20° 28° 20° 19° 21° 19–28°
7d · 2026-09-02 15° 27° 26° 22° 25° 15–27°
6d · 2026-09-03 22° 25° 24° 20° 26° 20° 23° 20–26°
5d · 2026-09-04 24° 26° 24° 24° 29° 23° 26° 23–29°
4d · 2026-09-05 24° 26° 23° 24° 27° 23° 26° 23–27°
3d · 2026-09-06 24° 26° 23° 24° 28° 24° 25° 23–28°
2d · 2026-09-07 23° 26° 22° 24° 27° 23° 25° 22–27°
1d · 2026-09-08 23° 25° 23° 26° 26° 23° 24° 23–26°
0d · 2026-09-09 23° 25° 24° 26° 27° 23° 25° 23–27°
actual 26°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.