Was the forecast right for Seattle on Fri Jul 24?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
7 days out, 5 models put Seattle's Fri Jul 24 high anywhere from 24° to 31°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 27°. The day verified at 26° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-17 | 24° | 28° | 29° | 25° | 31° | — | — | 24–31° |
| 6d · 2026-07-18 | 24° | 26° | 26° | 26° | 30° | 25° | 25° | 24–30° |
| 5d · 2026-07-19 | 24° | 26° | 25° | 26° | 27° | 22° | 28° | 22–28° |
| 4d · 2026-07-20 | 24° | 26° | 28° | 26° | 28° | 26° | 27° | 24–28° |
| 3d · 2026-07-21 | 24° | 26° | 27° | 25° | 31° | 26° | 28° | 24–31° |
| 2d · 2026-07-22 | 24° | 26° | 27° | 27° | 31° | 26° | 28° | 24–31° |
| 1d · 2026-07-23 | 24° | 27° | 27° | 28° | 26° | 25° | 28° | 24–28° |
| 0d · 2026-07-24 | 24° | 28° | 27° | 27° | 25° | 26° | 27° | 24–28° |
| actual | 26° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.