Was the forecast right for Seattle on Thu Jul 23?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
6 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Thu Jul 23 high anywhere from 23° to 32°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 24°. The day verified at 24° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 2.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-17 | 26° | 28° | 30° | 24° | 32° | 28° | 23° | 23–32° |
| 5d · 2026-07-18 | 26° | 27° | 26° | 27° | 30° | 24° | 27° | 24–30° |
| 4d · 2026-07-19 | 25° | 27° | 31° | 25° | 33° | 25° | 29° | 25–33° |
| 3d · 2026-07-20 | 24° | 28° | 27° | 25° | 35° | 25° | 27° | 24–35° |
| 2d · 2026-07-21 | 22° | 24° | 26° | 25° | 27° | 24° | 26° | 22–27° |
| 1d · 2026-07-22 | 22° | 24° | 26° | 27° | 23° | 23° | 25° | 22–27° |
| 0d · 2026-07-23 | 20° | 25° | 24° | 26° | 24° | 23° | 25° | 20–26° |
| actual | 24° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.