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Was the forecast right for Seattle on Thu Jul 23?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

6 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Thu Jul 23 high anywhere from 23° to 33°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 25°. The day verified at 24° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 2.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 3° cool.

6 days out the models said 23–33; it hit 24. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
6d · 2026-07-17 25° 28° 30° 26° 33° 27° 23° 23–33°
5d · 2026-07-18 24° 27° 29° 26° 32° 23° 27° 23–32°
4d · 2026-07-19 25° 27° 31° 25° 33° 25° 29° 25–33°
3d · 2026-07-20 23° 26° 25° 26° 27° 24° 27° 23–27°
2d · 2026-07-21 22° 24° 26° 26° 27° 22° 26° 22–27°
1d · 2026-07-22 21° 25° 25° 27° 24° 23° 26° 21–27°
actual 24°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.