Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Thu Oct 22?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 18° to 25°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 17°. The day verified at 17° against the SFOC1 observations, with 1.0 mm of precipitation — showers.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 21° | — | — | 22° | — | — | 21–22° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 18° | 25° | 24° | — | 25° | — | — | 18–25° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 25° | 27° | 22° | — | 19° | — | — | 19–27° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 23° | 24° | 19° | — | 27° | — | — | 19–27° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 20° | 22° | 17° | — | 25° | — | — | 17–25° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 24° | 18° | — | 18° | — | — | 18–24° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 20° | 23° | 17° | 19° | 19° | — | — | 17–23° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 16° | 18° | 19° | 16° | 17° | — | — | 16–19° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 17° | 18° | 18° | 17° | 16° | — | — | 16–18° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 16° | 16° | 18° | 16° | 15° | 16° | 16° | 15–18° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 16° | 17° | 19° | 18° | 18° | 17° | 20° | 16–20° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 16° | 17° | 17° | 17° | 18° | 16° | 18° | 16–18° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 17° | 18° | 17° | 15° | 16° | 16° | 18° | 15–18° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 17° | 17° | 19° | 17° | 17° | 15° | 16° | 15–19° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 16° | 18° | 16° | 17° | 19° | 16° | 18° | 16–19° |
| actual | 17° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.