The Spread Maps Request an invite

Was the forecast right for San Diego on Wed Oct 7?

San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations

14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Wed Oct 7 high anywhere from 25° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 32° against the SAN observations — clear.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 5° warm.

14 days out the models said 25–39; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 5°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-22 — 30° — — 31° — — 30–31°
14d · 2026-09-23 32° 39° 31° — 25° — — 25–39°
13d · 2026-09-24 35° 36° 43° — 35° — — 35–43°
12d · 2026-09-25 34° 37° 31° — 32° — — 31–37°
11d · 2026-09-26 35° 35° 36° — 33° — — 33–36°
10d · 2026-09-27 36° 37° 38° — 27° — — 27–38°
9d · 2026-09-28 37° 37° 40° 32° 29° — — 29–40°
8d · 2026-09-29 36° 31° 33° 36° 33° — — 31–36°
7d · 2026-09-30 34° 34° 38° 30° 34° — — 30–38°
6d · 2026-10-01 33° 34° 37° 32° 33° 33° 34° 32–37°
5d · 2026-10-02 32° 35° 38° 31° 31° 34° 35° 31–38°
4d · 2026-10-03 33° 33° 37° 32° 30° 32° 37° 30–37°
3d · 2026-10-04 33° 32° 37° 32° 30° 33° 35° 30–37°
2d · 2026-10-05 33° 32° 37° 32° 30° 33° 35° 30–37°
1d · 2026-10-06 33° 33° 37° 32° 30° 33° 34° 30–37°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.