Was the forecast right for San Diego on Wed Sep 23?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 27° to 33°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 25° against the SAN observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 22° | — | — | 23° | — | — | 22–23° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 33° | 28° | 32° | — | 27° | — | — | 27–33° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 25° | 26° | 26° | — | 26° | — | — | 25–26° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 26° | 25° | 27° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–27° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 25° | 24° | 31° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–31° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 24° | 25° | 25° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–25° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 24° | 26° | 25° | 25° | 24° | — | — | 24–26° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 26° | 28° | 27° | 28° | 25° | — | — | 25–28° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 26° | 26° | 27° | 26° | 24° | — | — | 24–27° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 26° | 26° | 27° | 26° | 25° | 25° | 27° | 25–27° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 25° | 24° | 29° | 25° | 25° | 26° | 29° | 24–29° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 26° | 24° | 30° | 25° | 25° | 27° | 28° | 24–30° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 26° | 24° | 29° | 25° | 24° | 26° | 25° | 24–29° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 27° | 25° | 29° | 26° | 25° | 27° | 26° | 25–29° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 27° | 26° | 29° | 26° | 25° | 27° | 26° | 25–29° |
| actual | 25° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.