Was the forecast right for San Diego on Sun Sep 6?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
12 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 24° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 35° against the SAN observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. GEM ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 29° | 25° | 34° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–34° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 26° | 23° | 33° | — | 26° | — | — | 23–33° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 29° | 28° | 35° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–35° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 31° | 26° | 33° | — | 29° | — | — | 26–33° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 30° | 32° | 34° | 26° | 25° | — | — | 25–34° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 30° | 30° | 37° | 30° | 30° | — | — | 30–37° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 31° | 32° | 34° | 29° | 24° | 36° | — | 24–36° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 30° | 31° | 34° | 29° | 28° | 31° | 33° | 28–34° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 31° | 29° | 30° | 28° | 26° | 30° | 32° | 26–32° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 31° | 29° | 33° | 30° | 27° | 28° | 29° | 27–33° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 31° | 30° | 35° | 29° | 28° | 29° | 33° | 28–35° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 30° | 31° | 33° | 29° | 28° | 30° | 35° | 28–35° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 31° | 33° | 34° | 30° | 31° | 31° | 35° | 30–35° |
| actual | 35° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.