Was the forecast right for San Diego on Mon Aug 31?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
6 days out, 7 models put San Diego's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 26° to 29°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 28°. The day verified at 26° against the SAN observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 29° | 27° | 29° | 26° | 26° | 27° | 27° | 26–29° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 30° | 28° | 31° | 27° | 25° | 27° | 29° | 25–31° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 29° | 28° | 31° | 26° | 26° | 26° | 29° | 26–31° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 28° | 28° | 31° | 28° | 26° | 27° | 30° | 26–31° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 29° | 29° | 32° | 28° | 26° | 26° | 31° | 26–32° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 29° | 28° | 32° | 28° | 26° | 27° | 30° | 26–32° |
| actual | 26° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.