The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Sep 14?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 16° to 29°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 21°. The day verified at 22° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 16–29; it hit 22. ECMWF led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-30 20° 31° 20–31°
14d · 2026-08-31 29° 19° 16° 18° 16–29°
13d · 2026-09-01 28° 26° 18° 29° 18–29°
12d · 2026-09-02 25° 20° 30° 30° 20–30°
11d · 2026-09-03 31° 24° 20° 23° 20–31°
10d · 2026-09-04 30° 22° 31° 26° 22–31°
9d · 2026-09-05 21° 28° 31° 30° 24° 21–31°
8d · 2026-09-06 22° 32° 23° 26° 26° 22–32°
7d · 2026-09-07 25° 30° 22° 24° 25° 22–30°
6d · 2026-09-08 22° 22° 23° 25° 23° 21° 22° 21–25°
5d · 2026-09-09 23° 21° 24° 28° 22° 21° 25° 21–28°
4d · 2026-09-10 22° 21° 24° 25° 23° 23° 24° 21–25°
3d · 2026-09-11 22° 21° 23° 23° 22° 22° 24° 21–24°
2d · 2026-09-12 21° 21° 22° 22° 22° 22° 22° 21–22°
1d · 2026-09-13 22° 20° 22° 22° 21° 22° 22° 20–22°
0d · 2026-09-14 22° 21° 22° 21° 22° 21° 21° 21–22°
actual 22°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.