The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Sep 12?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 28° to 32°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 1° cold.

14 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-28 — 27° — — 20° — — 20–27°
14d · 2026-08-29 31° 28° 32° — 31° — — 28–32°
13d · 2026-08-30 18° 28° 29° — 36° — — 18–36°
12d · 2026-08-31 26° 25° 22° — 31° — — 22–31°
11d · 2026-09-01 20° 26° 23° — 26° — — 20–26°
10d · 2026-09-02 22° 22° 28° — 24° — — 22–28°
9d · 2026-09-03 31° 21° 30° 25° 16° — — 16–31°
8d · 2026-09-04 33° 32° 29° 28° 28° — — 28–33°
7d · 2026-09-05 31° 25° 23° 32° 29° — — 23–32°
6d · 2026-09-06 34° 34° 30° 32° 28° 33° 32° 28–34°
5d · 2026-09-07 33° 33° 34° 33° 31° 32° 30° 30–34°
4d · 2026-09-08 33° 33° 34° 32° 32° 34° 33° 32–34°
3d · 2026-09-09 33° 32° 34° 34° 34° 34° 32° 32–34°
2d · 2026-09-10 32° 32° 34° 33° 34° 35° 32° 32–35°
1d · 2026-09-11 32° 31° 32° 34° 33° 33° 32° 31–34°
0d · 2026-09-12 32° 31° 32° 33° 32° 32° 32° 31–33°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.